Matteo Renzi's referendum defeat risks Italy political crisis

Matteo Renzi will resign as Italian prime minister after being roundly defeated in a referendum to change the constitution marking a major victory for anti-establishment and rightwing parties and plunging the eurozone s third largest economy into political chaos. Referendum win may lead nowhere for Five Star and Northern League Read more The prime minister conceded defeat in an emotional speech at his residence Palazzo Chigi and said he would submit his resignation to Italy s president Sergio Mattarella on Monday afternoon. My experience in government ends here I did all I could to bring this to victory Renzi said. If you fight for an idea you cannot lose. It was a not an unexpected defeat but it was nevertheless a humiliating one with 59.1% of Italians voting against the proposed reforms which would have made sweeping changes to Italy s constitution and parliamentary system. Pointing to the high voter turnout 65% of eligible voters cast ballots in the referendum Renzi said the vote represented a feast of democracy . The 20-point margin was a major victory for the populist Five Star Movement which led opposition to the reform and the xenophobic Northern League. The parties are not traditional allies but locked arms to take on Renzi in the hope now realised of driving him out of office. Weeks ago both party leaders Beppe Grillo and Matteo Salvini were exuberant in the face of Donald Trump s victory in the US with Grillo claiming it represented a big fuck you to the political establishment. Indeed just moments after the exit polls established that Renzi was heading to an embarrassing loss Salvini took to Twitter to heap praise on Marine Le Pen Vladimir Putin Donald Trump and La Lega as the Northern League is known. Austria rejects far right in presidential election as Italy goes to polls live Read more The victory for no could have profound consequences for Italy and could rattle European and global markets because of concerns about the country s economic future and evident support of populist and Eurosceptic parties. It may also prompt worries about plans by a consortium of banks to rescue Banca Monte dei Paschi of Siena as some investors said they feared that a victory for no could destabilise the banking sector. Market reaction was however calm on Monday with the euro largely recovered from 20-month low against the dollar hit on Sunday night. The result will be seen as a clear rejection by voters of establishment politics in favour of populist and anti-immigrant forces much as the UK s vote in June to leave the European Union and the election last month of Donald Trump in the US were. But that could be an oversimplification of the results. Many voters interviewed by the Guardian in the weeks leading up to the vote including those who said they were to the left of Renzi and not supporters of Grillo or Salvini expressed concern about the proposed changes to the constitution. The proposed reforms in effect neutered the senate and would have given much more power to Renzi and future prime ministers. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Counting the ballots. Photograph: Marco Bertorello/AFP/Getty Images The prime minister who started his political career as the mayor of Florence and was the youngest-ever prime minister when he assumed office in 2014 made constitutional reform a central plank of his premiership and argued for months that the changes would make Italy more stable and likely to adopt tough-but-needed economic and labour policies. https://www.admissionsdean.com/collategs/profile But the prime minister did not overcome the steep decline in his own popularity and the mistrust of voters who were disappointed that he could not or did not do more to improve the economy and cut unemployment. For many the plebiscite ultimately became a vote of no confidence in the premier. Renzi s personality jovial but verging on arrogance made him seem far removed from the worries of ordinary Italians some said. Strong voter turnout in pockets of northern Italy especially Lombardy and Veneto where the Northern League has high levels of support suggests voters may also have been sending the government a message on the immigration crisis. Renzi has always defended his government s position on the moral necessity of rescuing thousands of migrants on the Mediterranean even as he has said that Italy could not cope with the issue without more help from Europe. Renzi s decision to step down as he said he would means it will fall to President Mattarella to try to cobble together a new government with the agreement of the country s largest parties including Silvio Berlusconi s conservative Forza Italia. The immediate task facing the current government with or without Renzi will be to pass a change in the electoral law that will make it far more difficult for either the Five Star Movement or the Northern League to win strong majorities in the parliament in the next election. While Berlusconi was vehemently opposed to the referendum and Renzi the former premier has a vested interest in making sure those electoral reforms are passed and could align himself with the Democratic party to ensure that it happens just as he has in the past. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Leader of Italy s Five Star Movement Beppe Grillo casts his ballot in Genoa. Photograph: Luca Zennaro/EPA Pier Carlo Padoan the current finance minister has been touted as a possible replacement for Renzi as has Italy s culture minister Dario Franceschini. But the young guns of the Five Star Movement including Luigi di Maio have made clear that they will call for a swift election even before the electoral law is changed creating intense pressure for Mattarella. More radical solutions are needed : Italians on the referendum Read more While some see the potential rise of either the Five http://losingteethsd.thezenweb.com/ Star Movement or the Northern League which are both anti-EU as a sign that Italy could try to pull out of the eurozone some analysts have downplayed that possibility. An exit from the euro would be exceedingly complicated and while Euroscepticism is clearly on the rise there is no clear political consensus to leave the single currency. Andrea Liberati an M5S official in Umbria said the populist party s biggest objection to the reform was that it would have given Renzi more power. Indeed another top M5S member had called the authors of the reform the serial killers of Italy s future. The Five Star Movement has stayed close to the people we hear their voice. It s as if the current governors all live in grand palaces they don t listen any more said Liberati. In Orvieto dual Italian-American national Steve Brenner who owns a hotel in Rome said he voted no because he did not believe the proposed changes to the constitution would deliver a more efficient or smaller government. The biggest problem for me in Italy is a lack of faith in government Brenner said. That undermines everything and it s what makes governments unstable. To increase faith in government we don t need a constitutional reform. We need the government to show they are public servants there for the betterment of all not just for their own comfort and greed. Italian voters have rejected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi s proposed constitutional changes raising questions over whether Italy will stay in the European Union and keep using the euro. Here are the latest updates: Brexit has started the disintegration of the EU Italy s Europe minister says Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigns Euro slides to 20-month low after government s referendum defeat European stock markets open in the red Could the result mark the beginning of the end for the eurozone? Please allow a moment for the live blog to load Mr Renzi announced his resignation as the results came in saying he takes full responsibility for the extraordinary clear 20-point defeat of his package of constitutional reforms. Financial markets reacted immediately to the referendum result as the euro fell sharply in value against the dollar. Italy referendum explained: What is it about and what would a No vote mean for the UK? It continued to fall upon Mr Renzi s announcement at one stage hitting 1.0507 its lowest level since March 2015. The single currency slid the most since the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. The euro fell 1.3 per cent to 1.0524 just after midnight in Rome the most since June 24. It earlier touched 1.0506 the lowest since March 2015. Against the pound the common currency slipped 0.76 per cent with one euro buying 83p. 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Reuters 26/30 26 November 2016 Students place candles around an image of the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro at the university where Castro studied law as a young man during a vigil in Havana Cuba AP 27/30 26 November 2016 A man poses for a picture next to a statue of the late Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro with flowers as part of the tribute following the announcement of his death inside the Cuban embassy in Lima Peru Reuters 28/30 25 November 2016 Flooding caused by torrential rain in northern Italy was feared to have claimed at least one victim after a man was swept away by a swollen river near Turin. Several hundreds of people had to be evacuated from their homes and many roads Getty 29/30 25 November 2016 People sit in a boat of the Italian fire fighters as they help them to evacuate from their home in Moncalieri near Turin Getty 30/30 24 November 2016 laying hens confined indoors on a farm near Eigeltingen in southern Germany. Farm birds are no longer allowed to roam freely due to an outbreak of avian flu in the area EPA The euro rebounded slightly to 1.0563 in morning trading on Monday still down 0.96 per cent from Friday s close. There are concerns the No vote could boost the prospects of opposition groups who are against keeping Italy in the eurozone. More about: Italy referendum Italy Matteo Renzi Euro Eurozone European Union Reuse content Paris: Even as Italian lenders tumbled following a crushing referendum defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and his subsequent resignation the broader European market held steady. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1% at 8.28am in London as gains in miners and exporters amid a http://framarootdesc.blogolize.com/ falling euro outweighed declines in banks. Milan s FTSE MIB Index fell 1.3% for the worst performance in western-European markets. Traders had boosted Italian shares in the run-up to the vote sending its equity benchmark to the best weekly performance among developed markets. The bullishness was short lived. The political limbo following Renzi s resignation adds to what has already been a painful year for the country s stocks amid a simmering banking crisis reflected by a drop of 21% in the FTSE MIB in 2016. BloombergBlaise RobinsonTopics: Euro stocksItalyItaly s referendumMatteo Renzistoxx europe Millions of Italians who live abroad will have their last chance to cast their vote on Thursday in a critical referendum on constitutional reform brought by the prime minister Matteo Renzi. Renzi who has promised to resign if he loses faces a five-point deficit in the polls heading into the final week of campaigning for the 4 December referendum which centres on sweeping changes to Italy s parliamentary system. But Renzi told a Belgian newspaper that early voting by Italian emigrants could help clinch a victory. Italy referendum Q&A: the big economic questions answered Read more If the yes camp manages to win the approval of two-thirds of Italians abroad then we can do it he told Le Soir in remarks that were picked up by Italy s daily newspaper La Repubblica. There are about 4 million eligible Italian voters abroad of which about 1.1 million voted in 2013 s general election. Renzi calculated that if 1.5 million voted in the referendum and the yes camp won a million of those votes the balance would shift . But there are potential problems with Renzi s maths. Primarily though Renzi s position is on the line the referendum is not a national election and could attract less interest among Italians living all over the world. A diplomatic source at the Italian embassy in London the city with the second-highest number of registered Italian expatriates said half of all eligible voters in the UK had submitted their ballots by Monday and more were expected by the end of Thursday. In general the expatriate community in London has been active on the referendum . Over 60% have a higher education degree and they re interested in politics the official said. He added that the referendum had received a lot of media attention in the UK where resident Italians were more politically engaged with their homeland in comparison to Buenos Aires the city with the most registered Italian emigrants. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Beppe Grillo leader of the Five Star Movement is campaigning hard for a no vote. Photograph: Gregorio Borgia/AP Italians living abroad are considered to lean more towards the yes camp in the referendum but each side campaigned outside of Italy to target those voters. Both Maria Elena Boschi Renzi s reform minister and Luigi Di Maio a star of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement which is leading the opposition against the referendum appeared in rallies in London to help get out the vote. Italian emigrants have been decisive in two elections since winning the right to vote by mail in 2001 according to an analysis by Lorenzo Piccoli a researcher at the European University Institute in Florence: the tight election of 2006 which ended in a victory for Romano Prodi s centre-left government; and the 2013 election in which the centre-left secured a majority. Referendum ballots from emigrants are sent to a processing centre in Castelnuovo di Porto and will be counted on Sunday the day the rest of the country goes to the polls. The Renzi government was criticised last month for sending emigrants a signed letter from the prime minister urging them to vote yes along with a two-page brochure in whichRenzi was pictured with Barack Obama and Angela Merkel. Sunday will be Italy s turn to hold one of those fateful votes like Britain s referendum to leave the European Union that have spread angst through Western democracies. This one called by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would impose constitutional changes that would give the government more stability and power to enact needed economic reforms.When Mr. Renzi took office in February 2014 he was 39 the youngest Italian prime minister ever and known as Il Rottamatore the Demolisher who would shake up Italy s paralyzed political establishment. The referendum he proposed was meant to do that by streamlining a political system that has had more than 60 governments come and go over 70 years. Photo Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy at a press conference on Monday. Credit Andreas Solaro/Agence France-Presse Getty Images The main reform on the ballot would sharply reduce the role of the Senate the upper house of Parliament. That alongside a new law that would give considerable power to the party that wins a plurality in the lower house the Chamber of Deputies was envisioned as a way to make it far easier for Mr. Renzi s government to get needed reforms passed.But referendums as the British learned have a way of taking their own direction and what seemed like a sure yes now seems more likely to be a no on the wave of anti-establishment voting an ironic reaction in this case since Mr. Renzi s reforms were meant to upend that very establishment.If no prevails Mr. Renzi has vowed to resign a possibility that some Europeans fear could set off a banking crisis in the eurozone s third-largest economy and open the door to the populist anti-European Union Five Star Movement. That concern in turn has led to pressure on Mr. Renzi to revoke his vow to quit including President Obama s statement in October that he should hang around for a while no matter what. Sign Up for the Opinion Today Newsletter Every weekday get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists the Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world. Please verify you re not a robot by clicking the box. Invalid email address. Please re-enter. You must select a newsletter to subscribe to. Sign Up Receive occasional updates and special offers for The New York Times s products and services. Thank you for subscribing. An error has occurred. Please try again later. You are already subscribed to this email. View all New York Times newsletters. See Sample Manage Email Preferences Not you? Privacy Policy A victory for Mr. Renzi s reforms however would also pose a serious risk in the long term. There is no question that the equal powers of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies have sometimes contributed to legislative deadlock but there is little evidence that this is the chief reason for the dearth of reform or for the revolving-door governments. The main explanation lies in the nature of Italy s fragmented politics and resistance to change and the constitutional amendment wouldn t alter that. It would however enhance the government s authority to a degree unseen in Italian politics since World War II.Italy s unique bicameral system was designed to put an extra check on executive powers in a country once led by Benito Mussolini and more recently by Silvio Berlusconi. Lifting it might make it easier for Mr. Renzi to enact reforms but also for a different leader to achieve far less savory goals. The Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo a former comedian who wants to hold a referendum on dropping the euro is not far behind Mr. Renzi s Democratic Party in the polls.Mr. Renzi cannot undo his unwise push for a referendum a political shortcut that too often ends up biting its originator. But he can mitigate some of the potential fallout by declaring that he will stay in office for a while no matter what the outcome. That would calm the markets and Italy s neighbors and help smooth transition to the reality the referendum ushers in. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter. A version of this editorial appears in print on November 30 2016 on page A22 of the New York edition with the headline: Italy s Turn to Vote. Today s Paper|Subscribe Continue reading the main story